Sheldon Drobot, University of Colorado

Interview with Sheldon Drobot, June of 2008

CA-CP: What is the focus of your research in the Arctic?

Drobot: My research focuses on Arctic sea-ice, one of the most compelling stories of a changing planet.

Over the modern satellite record (1979-present), the extent of Arctic sea-ice has declined significantly. Based on a sea-ice record extending back to 1950, last year’s minimum ice cover represents a 50% reduction compared to conditions in the 1950s - 1970s (EOS, January 2008) The decline in sea-ice coverage is related to numerous factors, including warming air temperatures, variations in wind direction, which moves the ice, and a thinning ice cover (see GRL, December 2007, GRL, July 2003). Computer models and scientists agree that the sea ice will continue to decline in the future. Based on current sea-ice and atmospheric conditions, my research group is predicting a 3-in-5 chance that the 2008 sea-ice cover will set another new record low (University of Colorado, April 2008). (Photo copyright Sheldon Drobot. Used with permission.)

Graphics

Graphic 1, 2008 Ice Age Data, is a spatial map of the recent ice age compared to
climatology. The basic idea behind it is that younger ice is thinner and more
responsive to atmospheric conditions. So, the thin, young ice cover we are now
seeing is likely to readily respond to slight changes in temperature or wind,
and conditions that in the past may not have affected the ice as much may now
lead to rapid changes.

Graphic 2, the Concentration Trend Map, is the decadal
trend (from 1979-2007) in September sea-ice concentration. So, "-20" would mean every decade we are losing 20% of the ice cover in that area. As an example, 
since we're now almost 3 decades in, "-20" would mean something like there is
~60% less ice in that area now as compared with the early 1980s. What is really
striking here is the massive ice loss near Alaska.

CA-CP: What do changes in sea ice mean for the planet?

Drobot: This is an important question, and one that I don’t think is asked enough. One effect will be the opening of the Arctic Ocean to increased maritime travel, possibly including a navigable Northwest Passage in the near future. Efficient shipping operations in the Arctic will require long-range sea ice forecasts. My research group recently developed several Arctic-wide and regional sea-ice forecasts (University of Colorado, March 2007, GRL, May 2006, University of Colorado, May 2003).

CA-CP: What does this mean for people living in the United States?

Drobot: There are other impacts of sea-ice decline. These include the possibility of less precipitation in the western USA and the loss of polar bear habitat. These are critical issues that society needs to address soon. Finally, there are some largely unknown consequences of Arctic sea-ice melt, including how the loss of sea ice will affect weather patterns over the central US, and I am involved in research with scientists at the University of Nebraska to look at this now. If the loss of ice changes rainfall patterns over our nation’s agricultural belt, this obviously will have an enormous impact on our nation – and the world.

Sheldon Drobot's research can be found on his website.